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Ask Jamie #8: 如何解讀初期市場數據

January 16th, 2014 by Jamie

Jamie Lin 林之晨

Ask Jamie: 你提出問題,我整理成文章,與所有讀者分享

本週是 AW#7 在 AppWorks 的最後一週,很快的下星期一就要歡送這 21 個 Startups 畢業。回想過去 6 個月陪著他們創業,看著其中幾個團隊的產品獲得市場很好的迴響 (VoiceTubeCityTasker跑客幫美樂狗Sword Quest 等),幾乎所有人都把產品做了出來,也有幾個人在過程中 Pivot 到了更好的方向,算是相當充實的半年。接著過完舊曆年後 25 支 AW#8 Startups 會正式入駐,這次又有不少實力堅強的創業者,非常期待未來 6 個月能幫他們解決一些關鍵的問題。

說到解決問題,讓我們開始今天的 Ask Jamie 吧!

Josh Asked: 初期市場數據似乎不好,該 Pivot 嗎?

Three months ago, our product went to alive, and since then there were about 90 unique visitors came visiting our website, and 35 of them signed up for the service, and 20 of them upload files there, and 3 of them used it to solve the problem we are trying to solve.

But 2 out of these 3 stop using it because we lack of the features they want, so only 1 people out of 90 is using it to solve the problem we are trying to solve. (I tried to email to those 2 who stop using, one of them was saying we were lack of the feature he want and I asked him what he wanted. But he didn’t reply me. The other was uploading some giant size files and I told her that we will charge $0.1 per GB per month if the file size is over the limit, and then she decided to stop using our service. I think this tells that our solution is not very attractive.)

We see more people are using our product to be their personal cloud player, instead of hosting podcast. (I’m sure personal cloud player has a much bigger market size than podcast hosting, but there are lots of existing products out there.)

My questions are:
1. From the summary statistics we saw, can we confirm that our product is not solving the problem? Or how can we validate it?

2. Should we pivot to Persona Cloud player?

Thank you.

Josh, JustCast

Hey Josh,

Congrats on the launch and thanks for being a longtime patron.  I’ll answer your questions in Chinese below so that it’ll be easier for other readers to learn from your case.

你的問題是有 90 個人到達你的網站,只有 3 個人試過你的產品,試過之後有 2 個人不再使用,這樣的數據是不是代表應該要 Pivot。首先,以新產品來說,3 / 90 = 3.33% 的第一層轉換率事實上一點也不低,1 / 3 = 33% 的第二層轉換率也相當可以接受。所以現在的重點是  90 個採樣數是不是一個足夠的大數,這得看你的目標族群的大小,以及你採樣時候的精確度。單純從消費性產品的統計學上來看,90 個採樣數很難說是大數。更重要的,最終只有一個留下的用戶,很難讓你針對用戶「群體」去做更多研究,來更精準的根據他們需求更新產品。

因此,我想你必須至少再增加 20 至 30 個長期用戶,來讓累積可以研究的使用者基礎。假設轉換率不變的話,意思是你必須再導約 1,800 至 2,700 個訪客到你的網站上。當然導這批流量的同時,你也在確認前面 90 個流量的轉換率,是不是就是你網站的長期轉換率。不過在這個階段,轉換率不是那麼重要,反而是留下足夠的長期用戶群體,來讓你可以有足夠的研究對象,從他們身上得到回饋,精進產品的核心功能。等到產品核心做好了,再來優化網站的轉換流程還不持。

至於要不要 Pivot 去做 Cloud Player,這真的是要看這群長期用戶的給你的回饋了。如果很明顯的他們都跟你說,他們喜歡用 Cloud Player,並且願意付費。或是當 Cloud Player 使用者群體不斷增加,你可以找到創投支持你,直到你累積到足夠的用戶量,可以靠廣告賺錢。則你到時候你應該會自然的被市場牽著去做 Cloud Player。反之,如果這群長期用戶,只有第一個用戶是想要 Cloud Player,剩下的用戶多數想要做 Podcast,則你就驗證了自己當初對 TA 需求的假設。

所以因為樣本數太少,現在決定 Pivot 或許有點太早。當然,創業最可貴的是找到自己的金三角,所以要不要 Pivot 除了市場的反饋,也得考慮自己的熱忱與能力這兩個重要的面向。

以上,希望有回答到你的問題,再讓我知道後續的發展。

Jamie

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